Wednesday, April 23, 2008

HRC vs. BHO

I predicted HRC's 10 point victory last night. Now she has no reason to back out and the superdelegates have something new to consider. I did some research and this is what I calculated. When selecting a nominee, they need to think big picture. Do you want someone that wins primaries? Do you want someone to win the general election? If HRC were to win the same states in the general election that she won in the primaries, she would have 255 electors. If BHO were to win the same states he won in the general that he won in the primaries, he would only have 231 electors. The likelihood of either candidate winning all of the same states is slim to none, but a consideration in selecting the nominee, nonetheless. If BHO takes NC, as expected, and HRC takes Indiana, then the results are 246 and 266, respectively. That takes HRC to 4 electors away from the win. I am by no means a Hill backer, but I am just putting it out there. Something to think about...

You may say, any Dem will win California. Don't speak too soon. Gov. Arnold is on the McCain train and that will be a factor in taking the Left Coast.

Regardless of the outcome on the left and the way things are today, we win in November.

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